An alternative to GCM modeling - local signal response
Consider the following:
Consider your local weather station as a black box system with
incoming signal = solar radiation + net CO2 forcing
outgoing signal = temperature
It is now possible to draw up an empirical (local) signal response function for
amplitude and phase shift (electronic circuit theory).
The ratio between solar signal and greenhouse signal amplitude is
(approximately) 100:1 so a linear approximation is allowed.
The first approximation is that of a capacitor circuit
For continental climates the capacity is low
(high amplitude, phase shift < 30 days)
(click Summit,Greenland and Verchojansk, Russia)
For marine climates the capacity is high
(low amplitude, phase shift > 60 days)
(click Jan Mayen, Norway)
The solar forcing is dependent on geographic latitude, season, and length of day.
(note that Jan Mayen and Greenland Summit are nearly on the same latitude)
To see what an inclination change does for a given latitute
or even the seasonal effects, I constructed an insolation calculator.
download excel 2000 version
download excel 95 version
based on the celestial mechanics formula:
horizon altitude = asin(sin(LAT) * sin(DEC) + cos(LAT)* cos(DEC) * cos(H))
The CO2 level is seasonally varying, with lowest concentrations in summer.
The CO2 forcing is very much dependent on temperature, below -30 C
the forcing is even negative (emission spectrum).